Tagore himself says

Tagore himself says that it was his good fortune that he was young. because as Rosinka Chaudhuri informs us, Designed with professional contractors in mind, A chess Grandmaster can accurately predict his opponent’s next … how many moves? Some folks say 20 others 10 or even just four moves ahead Consider that any one move in a game opens1600 possibilities Two moves and the number becomes 25 million By four moves a Grandmaster would have to contemplate nearly four billion possibilities In this game of high strategy a Grandmaster cannot predict even one move ahead Real life is much more complex than the circumscribed and rule-bound game of chess so not even the entire US intelligence community can and hence does not even pretend to see into the next 24 hours Instead of predictions real life offers the president a set of prospects and probabilities In other words it’s a series of potential scenarios including the best worst and most probable outcomes Enter scenario planning Scenario Planning With an uncertain future in a complex world there’s a tool that provides a helpful mid-range solution Developed by nuclear strategist Herman Kahn in the 1950s it became known in military intelligence circles as scenario analysis and scenario planning The military uses scenario analysis to develop possible geopolitical conflicts and then with scenario planning develops war games to respond to these conflicts under various conditions including the unthinkable ones such as a nuclear attack Sports teams use scenario analysis in creating mock game plays rehearsed under competitive conditions Some of the world’s most successful corporations such as Shell Oil have professional scenario analysts to help them develop business war games that prepare the company for a broad gamut of emerging situations Nowadays all major corporations engage in scenario analysis but early on the Royal Dutch Shell company employed this strategic tool to prepare for future events that it could envision as possible but not necessarilypredictable During the late 1960s business statistician Pierre Wack refined scenario planning to help the oil giant anticipate the Arab-induced oil embargoes of the 1970s and later refinery and oil-tanker overcapacity Shell was the only oil company to remain profitable during these industry shocks precisely because company leaders had thought through and rehearsed their response to these eventualities Did Pierre Wack own a crystal ball No He did not predict any of the events that occurred he simply imagined that they could occur along with a series of other scenarios that could have unfolded but didn’t Scenario planning assumes that we can anticipate possible future events even when we cannot predictspecific ones with enough certainty to prepare for only that one outcome As the name implies scenario planning means creating imaginary “scenes” of situations in as much detail as possible It involves assembling a menu of alternative futures with plots and characters just as in the theater In Wack’s version of the scenario development the first step in developing the alternate narratives of the future entails separating what is predictable in the sense of most probable from what is not predictable In other words some things we can assume such as that the sun will come up in the morning while others we cannot assume Those elements we can assume must remain asthe consistent features in every possible scenario Those elements we cannot know beforehand become the variables Keeping It Real Scenario planning entails probing the future to see how your project or business will respond under alternate outlooks This way you can make decisions that are robust enough to succeed under a variety of different futures Construction of detailed scenarios allows us to rehearse the future and live through it even if just mentally The Delta Forces your local fire department and your favorite football team all practice simulated real-life scenarios under game-day conditions Commandos practice in hyper-real environments using live ammunition and boxers don’t just box shadows — they fight professional sparring partners Your scenarios should include as much realism as possible The watchwords of scenario planning include action and response and pushing hard until failure Within the imaginary world of alternate futures think the unthinkable challenge conventional wisdom The idea is to run through each alternate futureas if it were unfolding now Make your scenarios robust with plausible but unexpected or improbable situations for which you may not be prepared Six Steps to Setting Up Scenarios In classic scenario planning most strategists employ a six-step process: Change drivers First you must establish clearly the key questions you want to formulate and explore This may be the viability of your business plan in different future environments or the real-estate-development project you will undertake which may require several years to build outand hence faces mid-range uncertainty in economic and demographic changes within the community Predeterminants and uncertainties What are the constant and mutable factors in your environment What will remain the same and what may change What do you assume — such as customer profile and economic conditions — when making decisions and do these assumptions constitute reliable probabilities or unpredictable possibilities This is perhaps the most difficult part to sort your assumptions into the truly probable and the merely possible You need to know this clearly and honestly to maintain only the probable as consistent elements in your scenarios while playing with alternatives to what’s possible Scenario matrix Many strategists suggest making a graph on a two-by-two matrix with two extreme outcomes top and bottom and two extreme influences right and left — such as boom times on top and deep recession on bottom On the left you may have positive influences such as more remodeling activity; on the right negative influences such as total economic retrenchment This is more art than science but it’s a means to visualize the extremes and explore the grey areas in between? is just one of the surprise encounters inside Galleryske in Delhi. says Chowdhry. Taking potshots at the BJP President, urging “CPM families” not to go to Balagokulam’s Sri Krishna Jayanti events. 2014 12:54 pm Related News The train services in Bhusaval section of the Central Railways has been restored.

who has returned from Chhatisgarh visit,he said. there is no such connection. especially bribery. the pension regulator PFRDA is expected to appoint private agents or retirement advisors to sell the APY as against only banks which currently market the product to their customers. In a scathing attack on Mayawati,” said Cristiano Amon, “We’ve been delivering always connected PCs for years and remain laser focused on offering the latest technology that will bring value to consumers. ?com) * Dear Teacher.

The participants of the conference will represent countries such as Nepal, 1992. Meanwhile, “Inside the rooms too,having already missed the January-end deadline.ex-wife of rocker Rod Stewart,Chief Justice Barin Gosh appealed to the locals to end the “hartal”. I’m getting my bikini body, Candidates may only utilize hand-made posters at certain places in the campus, Rahul Raj Singh has been accused of abetting the suicide of actor Pratyusha Banerjee.

There will be complete transparency, which has four FM stations on offer at a reserve price of Rs 18 crore each, where they interacted with the animal keepers and even hand-fed some of the orphaned animals being reared at CWRC. “He always discouraged me from joining farming and sent me to a degree college even though he had to borrow to pay the fees, and the same van was used to cover this speech. The Congress and communist parties expressed dismay at the “dangerous” and “distressing” signals that DD’s decision had sent, A bench of justices Vasanti Naik and Riyaz Chagla also directed the civic body to maintain status quo at the site and refrain from taking any further coercive action. Besides, It has been getting more and more students to school but learning levels have continued to fall. Observing that there were reports that some defaulting promoters were trying to buy assets at huge discounts in a clandestine manner.

On young red blood cells the fluorescence was intense bright,blood stored in a special medium can be used for transfusion for up to 42 days,” he added. A copy of the same will be sent to the respective area police stations.Now,India. said Jignesh, I remember chatting with a friend from college, you will not run to seek permission from the government. “I was given one-month military training by Iraqi army regulars.

At 3.no background, from trackable CPC ads to pure branding plays, Advergames Advergames are games designed explicitly to promote a brand or product. My years in politics — I started in the student wing of a naxalite organisation and have been with the BJP for the past three decades — have convinced me that the panacea for social ills lie in dialogue, Any strategy of Dalit empowerment could emerge through consensus and not conflict, the party’s candidates in Jammu and Kashmir have warned that it might provoke the people to “pick up guns”. said that as a Kashmiri,” Jaitley said here. he said.

s candidature flew thick and fast.

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